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Public Information Statement

Statement as of 6:26 AM EDT on May 28, 2015


... This week is hurricane preparedness week for 2015...

All week long the National Weather Service will issue informative
messages to help you prepare for the hurricane season. Each day we
will cover a different topic. Today we will talk about the forecast
process.

The National hurricane center: the primary mission of the National
Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center is to save lives
and protect property by issuing watches... warnings... forecasts... and
analyses of hazardous weather conditions in the tropics. In the last
15 years hurricane track forecast errors have been significantly
reduced. Hurricane track forecasts are more reliable today than ever
and more accurate forecasts mean better preparations before the
storm strikes.

Observation: when forecasting and warning for hurricanes... the
National Weather Service uses all of the tools in its observational
Arsenal. Satellites... buoys... aircraft... radar and model data are
all important tools used for hurricane tracking and prediction.
While hurricanes are still over the open ocean... indirect
measurements of the storms intensity and behavior are made
primarily via advanced satellites... although SHIPS and buoys
provide some observations. Once the storm falls within range of
aircraft more direct measurements are taken by reconnaissance
aircraft... and measurements of winds... pressure... and even ocean
temperatures are collected. Within about 200 miles of the
coast... radar provides important measurements of the storm. The
computer models that are used to forecast storm intensity and
movement require a great deal of data about the atmosphere including
all the observations from satellites... aircraft... SHIPS and radar.

Model guidance: computer models take all the various observations
and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of
hurricane behavior. The atmosphere in which the hurricane is moving
is very important to hurricane intensity and motion. The solution
from these computer models are packaged as guidance and evaluated by
hurricane specialists at the National Hurricane Center as well as
local National Weather Service forecast offices. Hurricane
forecasters must look at all of the model results... which frequently
give widely different pictures of the future. When the models
disagree... hurricane forecasters must use their experience and
judgment to decide which model is performing the best under the
current conditions. A good forecaster has an extensive education in
the science of meteorology and considerable experience in tropical
forecasting. Forecasters recognize that conditions can change
quickly. This is why forecasts talk about "probabilities" and
"margin of error."

Product generation: once forecasts... watches... and warnings have
been coordinated along the coast between the National Hurricane
Center and local National Weather Service offices... the National
Hurricane Center generates the hurricane forecast and warning
products. Hurricane forecasts are issued 4 times a day when
hurricanes are present in the Atlantic Ocean... Caribbean Sea... or
Gulf of Mexico. These forecasts are issued at 5 am... 11 am... 5
PM... and 11 PM EDT.

Information dissemination: all of this hurricane forecast and
warning information is sent out to all media outlets for relay to
everyone. Television... radio... and NOAA Weather Radio are some of
the best means to get the most up to date hurricane information. The
internet can also be a great source of information, including the
web sites of the National Hurricane Center at
http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov, your local NWS office at
http://weather.Gov, and North Carolina emergency management at
http://readync.Org.

Your local Raleigh National Weather Service office: the role of the
Raleigh National Weather Service office is to take the hurricane
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and localize the threat
to central North Carolina. The local National Weather Service office
closely examines the threats of wind... tornadoes... rainfall... and
flooding. This information is provided to local and state emergency
management as well as the media. The Raleigh National Weather
Service office will issue river flood and flash flood warnings to
help save lives from flood waters that occur after a hurricane drops
torrential rain. Tornado warnings will also be issued by the
National Weather Service offices as forecasters detect them on the
Doppler radar.

For more information about hurricane preparedness... please visit the
following web sites:
http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/prepare
http://www.Readync.Org


Weather Severe Map
Alaska - Special Statement , Record Report
Arizona - Air Quality Alert
Arkansas - Flood Warning , Flash Flood Warning , Flood Warning, Areal Flood Warning , Special Statement , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Colorado - Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Public Information Statement
Connecticut - Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Delaware - Public Information Statement
District of Columbia - Record Report
Florida - Areal Flood Advisory, Coastal Hazard Statement , Areal Flood Advisory , Record Report
Georgia - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
Idaho - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
Kansas - Areal Flood Warning , Areal Flood Warning , Flash Flood Warning , Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Kentucky - Public Information Statement
Louisiana - Flood Warning , Public Information Statement
Maine - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Special Statement
Maryland - Record Report , Public Information Statement
Massachusetts - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Special Statement
Michigan - Flood Warning , Flood Advisory , Record Report
Minnesota - Flood Warning , Public Information Statement
Mississippi - Flood Warning , Public Information Statement
Missouri - Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Record Report , Public Information Statement
Montana - Flood Warning , Areal Flood Warning , Public Information Statement
Nebraska - Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Areal Flood Advisory , Public Information Statement
Nevada - Public Information Statement
New Hampshire - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Special Statement
New Jersey - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Public Information Statement
New Mexico - Tornado Watch
New York - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Special Statement , Record Report
North Carolina - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
North Dakota - Public Information Statement
Oklahoma - Flash Flood Warning, Areal Flood Warning , Flash Flood Warning, Areal Flood Warning , Flash Flood Warning , Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Special Statement , Public Information Statement
Pennsylvania - Record Report , Public Information Statement
Rhode Island - Severe Thunderstorm Watch
South Carolina - Public Information Statement
Tennessee - Public Information Statement
Texas - Tornado Watch , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Flood Warning , Areal Flood Warning , Areal Flood Warning , Flood Warning, Areal Flood Warning , Areal Flood Advisory , Flash Flood Watch , Special Statement , Public Information Statement
Utah - Record Report , Public Information Statement
Vermont - Severe Thunderstorm Watch , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Severe Thunderstorm Warning , Special Statement
Virginia - Record Report
Washington - Public Information Statement
West Virginia - Record Report
Wisconsin - Flood Warning
Wyoming - Flood Warning , Special Statement , Record Report